Comprehensive Trends Analysis of Peste Des Petits Ruminants (PPR) Vaccination in Sheep and Goats: A Study in the Northern Region of Ghana

Abstract

Peste des Petits Ruminants (PPR) is one of the most devastating diseases that affect small ruminants and is capable of causing approximately 90% mortality in affected animals, thus inflicting significant losses on the global livestock industry. The primary solution to mitigate the spread and impact of PPR is to ensure that animals receive   PPR vaccine to develop active immunity against the disease. This study, therefore, aimed to analyze the trend of PPR vaccination in sheep and goats by utilizing vaccination data spanning from January 2017 to December 2022. The data was obtained from the Regional Veterinary Services office of the Northern Region of Ghana. The Seasonal Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model was employed for trend analysis and short-run forecasting of the monthly vaccination values for sheep and goats. The SARIMA model forecasts a fluctuating trend in the number of sheep and goats vaccinated in the region, revealing both upward and downward patterns. This indicates positive and negative impulses, with expectations of a decrease in monthly figures by December 2024. We recommend that, the Veterinary Service Directorate of the region have to intensify campaigns and education among farmers in order to encourage them to vaccinate their animals against PPR.