Application of DSSAT Crop Simulation Model to Identify the yield variation of Tomato and Cabbage during Mid Centuries due to global warming and to compare with the effectiveness of super absorbent polymer (ZEBA) on yield of those crops

Abstract

The increased danger of global warming and the observed loss of persistent precipitation regimes threaten severe challenges to global crop yields. The study in this work employed a two-fold approach, which involved the integration of crop simulation modeling and a controlled environmental experiment, to examine measures for the maintaining of productivity in two significant vegetable crops, cabbage and tomato. The CROPGRO model, which is integrated into the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT v4.5), was applied to forecast yield responses for the years 2040, 2050, and 2060. Concurrently, a field experiment under a polytunnel replicated the unfavorable temperature conditions projected for 2060 to test the efficacy of the super absorbent polymer, ZEBA. Simulations under the model indicated significant loss in yield: fresh weight of tomato fruit per plant will be reduced by 40% to 53% by mid-century, and head weight of cabbage will also decrease by approximately 40%. Critical temperature situations forecasted highs of up to 36°C by 2060. Significantly, the controlled test affirmed that ZEBA application successfully reversed such losses, raising tomato and cabbage yields by 65.7% and 37.9%, respectively, against baseline yields simulated for the year 2060. These findings provide valuable insights into adaptive strategies that may help sustain crop productivity under future climate change scenarios.