The Effect of Climate Change and Variability on The Risk of Forest Fires in AL-Ghab Syrian Region During The Period 2007-2021

Abstract

Forest fires are one of the main threats to forest ecosystems in the Mediterranean region due to the effects of rising temperatures and the increasing severity, duration and recurrence of droughts. Daily meteorological data on precipitation and maximum temperatures at the El-Kreem station were used to estimate the change in forest fire risk in the Al-Ghab region of Syria over the period 2007-2021 using the Keetch & Byram Drought Index. Box plots and descriptive statistical analysis were used to examine the climatic characteristics of the study area. Trend lines were also used to determine the direction of change and estimate its value. The significance of the change was tested using the Mann-Kendall test. The results showed that the fire risk in this region is high to very high in all years, but varies significantly from year to year depending on the amount and distribution of precipitation and the level of maximum temperatures. The study also showed a clear and significant trend of increasing fire risk over the study period, which requires the development of appropriate strategies to manage this risk and ensure the sustainable development of important forest areas in the region.